Hong Kong shoppers are expected to spend about one-third of their total consumption outside the city by 2026, according to a forecast presented at the Retail Asia Summit.
Cross-border spending set to rise
Euromonitor International senior consultant Prudence Lai said the share of Hong Kong residents’ purchases made in mainland China and Macau is projected to reach roughly 35% by 2028. In 2026, the outflow will account for 31% of total spending. She added that the trend reflects a growing willingness among consumers to seek better value and variety beyond local stores.
She noted that local consumer expenditure is likely to be lower in 2028 than it was a decade earlier, as shoppers compare price, service and experience with nearby Shenzhen on a weekly basis. This comparison is expected to intensify as transportation links improve and digital platforms make cross-border browsing easier.
Retail sales trends and tourism impact
Retail sales fell from about $61 billion (HK$479 billion) in 2019 to $53.5 billion (HK$420 billion) in 2025, establishing a “new baseline.” Euromonitor expects organic growth of about 3% per year from 2026, bringing sales to $58.5 billion (HK$459 billion) by 2028. The modest rebound suggests that confidence is returning, albeit slowly.
Visitor spending on shopping is projected to stay flat at $5.8 billion (HK$45.5 billion) in 2026, then rise to $9.0 billion (HK$71 billion) by 2031. The share of visitor spending devoted to shopping fell from 42% in 2018 to 25% in 2026, with a modest recovery to 28% by 2031. Analysts attribute the dip to changing travel patterns and a shift toward experience-focused tourism.
By 2031, mainland China is expected to generate 73% of inbound retail spending, though tourists will allocate more of their budgets to dining, culture and experiences rather than pure merchandise. This reallocation signals a broader transformation in how visitors value their time on the peninsula.
Consumer priorities and digital shift
Wellness emerged as the only category where Hong Kong consumers plan to increase spending, with 29% indicating higher outlays in 2026, compared with 18% for entertainment. The aging population—projected to reach 38% aged 65 or older by 2040—drives demand for health-related products, and retailers are already expanding their assortments to meet this need.
E-commerce’s share of retail sales is set to double from roughly 10% in 2019 to 20% in 2026, a figure that includes cross-border online purchases. Online channels excel in selection and access, while physical stores win on seamless purchase, experience and trust. Brands that blend both worlds are likely to see stronger loyalty.
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Among Gen Z respondents, 42% follow or like brands on social media, versus 36% across all age groups. Younger shoppers are increasingly drawn to gamified retail experiences and livestream shopping, mirroring trends in mainland China. These behaviours encourage retailers to invest in interactive content.
Artificial intelligence is expected to shape 58% of APAC retailers’ strategies over the next five years, according to its 2025 industry survey. Companies are advised to make product content machine-readable to improve visibility on generative AI and social platforms. Early adopters may gain a competitive edge as algorithms become more sophisticated.
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It also coordinates virtual events, securing thought-leader and industry speakers who may become partners. In addition, the group runs awards programmes that recognize achievements, allowing businesses to join as participants or sponsors. The aim is to advance growth through partnerships. These initiatives are positioned to strengthen brand visibility and support relationships.
Strategic recommendations for retailers
Lai outlined three priorities: use stores as fulfillment and service hubs, close the trust gap in online channels, and integrate loyalty and after-sales support into a single system. She stressed that each priority requires coordinated effort across marketing, operations and technology teams.
She emphasized that winning back spending will require retailers to leverage Hong Kong’s strengths, trust, service and experience, rather than relying solely on price competition with nearby mainland cities. By focusing on these differentiators, merchants can attract both local buyers and cross-border visitors.
Hong Kong’s real GDP is projected to grow at about 2.1% annually through 2040, slower than the 3.9% rate for the Asia-Pacific region and the 3.0% global average. Consumer expenditure is expected to rise 2.4% per year, compared with 3.6% in the broader region. These macro-economic signals suggest that incremental growth will be driven more by efficiency gains than by large-scale spending spikes.
