The earliest snowfall in the U.S. often arrives far earlier than many assume. Historical weather data confirms measurable snow—defined as at least 0.1 inch—has occurred as soon as September in the Rockies, northern Plains, Great Lakes, and northern New England. However, timing shifts dramatically based on elevation, latitude, and location, with some Southern cities not seeing their first snow until November or later.
A map from early September showed the earliest recorded first-snow dates for select cities. These dates span from September 3 in Denver to November in several Southern locations. The map serves as a historical reference, not a prediction for 2026.
The National Weather Service defines measurable snow as 0.1 inch or more. Some of the earliest recorded snowfalls include:
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- Denver, Colorado: September 3, 1961 (4.2 inches)
- Great Falls, Montana: August 22, 1992
- Burlington, Vermont: September 30, 1992
- Buffalo, New York: October 6, 1991
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: October 8, 1972
- Washington, D.C.: October 10, 1979
- Raleigh, North Carolina: November 6, 1953
- Charleston, South Carolina: December 11, 1958
These records prove early snow is not confined to high-altitude western cities. Salt Lake City typically sees its first measurable snow on November 8, but past instances of September snowfall demonstrate how unusual such events are.
How Long Winters Actually Last
No official ranking exists for states with the longest winters, as conditions vary widely within regions. Alaska’s diverse climates—coastal, interior, and Arctic, contrast sharply with Colorado’s mountain communities, which experience different snow seasons than its plains. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses a modeling period of September 1 to May 31 for Alaska (about 273 days) and September 16 to May 15 for the contiguous U.S. (about 242 days). These windows are for analysis, not continuous snow cover.
Station records provide clearer insight. Northern Minnesota stands out, with International Falls averaging its first measurable snow around October 20 and its last around April 25, a roughly six-month span. Duluth follows a similar pattern, with averages of October 24 for the first snow and April 26 for the last. These cities receive heavy annual snowfall: International Falls averages about 71 inches, while Duluth gets roughly 86.1 inches. Historical extremes show even longer seasons. In Caribou, Maine, measurable snowfall occurs in about two-thirds of Octobers, and the region has seen snow as late as May 16, as in 2016 when 4.5 inches fell, the greatest late-season snowfall recorded there at the time.
Vermont’s Green Mountains also support extended snow seasons, especially at higher elevations. Burlington experiences measurable snowfall on dozens of days during some winters, with a long-term average of 44 to 58 days per season.
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Local conditions matter more than statewide averages. Colorado combines latitude and elevation to produce some of the earliest snow in the Lower 48. Colorado Springs averages its first measurable snow on October 24, but the earliest recorded date is September 3, 1961, when 4.2 inches accumulated. Alamosa normally sees its first measurable snow around November 1, while Pueblo’s mean date is November 5.
El Niño’s Role in 2026-27
The strongest climate signal for the 2026-27 winter is a strong El Niño pattern. The Climate Prediction Center stated in August that El Niño was strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. Sea-surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific have exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above average, and there’s a 69% chance the October-December 2026 event could surpass previous El Niño events since 1950.
El Niño does not ensure a warm or snow-free winter across the U.S. The September-November 2026 outlook favors above-normal temperatures in Alaska, the western and central contiguous U.S., the Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Florida, and parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. This reduces the likelihood of an extremely early, widespread first snowfall compared to historical records. However, early snow remains possible in high-elevation and northern locations even during warmer seasonal patterns.
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These records document past extremes but do not predict what will happen this September or October. For the 2026-27 season, NOAA’s strongest current signal remains the developing El Niño, while the timing of the first snowfall will depend on local temperature, elevation, storm tracks, and cold-air arrivals.
Early Snow ≠ Harsh Winter
Early snow events often have limited impact on the broader winter season. A single September snowfall in Denver or Burlington does not indicate a harsh winter ahead, nor does its absence. For most Americans, the first snow is a brief curiosity rather than a predictor of what’s to come. The actual winter story for 2026-27 will unfold in the months ahead, shaped by El Niño’s influence and the unpredictable behavior of weather systems.
NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 indicates a 55% chance of above-normal temperatures across much of the northern and central U.S., while the southern tier may see equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Precipitation forecasts suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and Great Lakes, with drier conditions expected in the Southwest and Southeast. These projections emphasize that while El Niño typically brings milder winters to the northern U.S., localized variations remain possible.
